The End of Technology

In fact, for the World Semiconductor Alliance, the development of things is somewhat beyond everyone's expectations.

The reason why they agreed to establish this alliance and were even willing to follow the alliance's non-compulsory suggestions was not only due to the resolution of the country's Congress, but also because these companies were confident.

If nothing else, take the three major EDA manufacturers as an example. Their market share in China is almost fixed and they can make so much money every year. This market does not mean that you will really give up if you give up. Years of technology accumulation allow them to have absolute pricing power and the ability to get whatever they want from their customers.

There are many reasons, such as user habits, operating this kind of professional software requires learning costs, and changing software requires engineers to relearn.

Another example is that their software is the most advanced, and they cooperate with most manufacturers. Various parameters are accurately matched, and at a certain level of craftsmanship, they have achieved the ultimate. For example, only the EDA software of these three companies can support chip design with processes below 3NM.

The most important thing is that for many large customers, the database accumulated in the early stage is very huge. These databases are even more valuable. Many libraries can be directly called when designing new generation chips. Once the software is changed, it will involve huge data migration work.

No big company would be willing to deal with this kind of thing, which is why they can be confident.

No matter how big the fuss is now, China's semiconductor companies will eventually succumb. Especially when everyone joins forces to form an alliance.

Most other companies had the same idea, and at one point they even thought they had won.

After all, as soon as some of their policies were promulgated, the entire semiconductor market in China was in turmoil. Ning Zi was even criticized verbally and writtenly.

But who would have thought that in the end it would lead to such a result.

In particular, Synopsy can be said to have suffered heavy losses. You must know that they have never had any discounts before. Prices can even increase year by year, customers are fixed, everyone is used to their software, and those huge databases restrict these companies from replacing their products and asking for whatever they want.

As long as their asking price does not exceed the cost of replacing the software, they will definitely win.

So giving up temporarily is just to go back arrogantly in the future.

But who would have thought that the emergence of SB and three-dimensional heterogeneous chips would catch everyone off guard.

It is conceivable that when China's independent three-dimensional heterogeneous chips develop, Synopsy will bid farewell to the Chinese market forever. Because the other party will definitely not share the three-dimensional wiring process and various parameters of its products with them, which means that the chips produced by China in the future will have nothing to do with Synopsy.

Other manufacturers are also facing the same dilemma, especially after Ningji gave each boss a piece of the latest RF chip. This design can almost perfectly bypass all current semiconductor patent moats and go to China for negotiation. The big guys probably just feel helpless.

No one mentioned forcing the Chinese people to submit, and the existence of the World Semiconductor Alliance seemed quite embarrassing.

Before, they did not want to bring Chinese companies to play. They went to China not long ago and also sent invitations to Chinese local semiconductor companies to join the alliance, but no company took the initiative.

Some companies that have business dealings with them have also directly communicated with them. The chip research and development center of TiDa has also announced that it will not cooperate with companies that have joined the World Semiconductor Alliance in the future, so even if they join the alliance, it is impossible. Share with them the technical details of the new three-dimensional structure chip.

Originally, the president of Synopsy and the president of Intel jointly visited Youwei, hoping to get Youwei to join the alliance camp. According to the information they received, Youwei cooperated with Ning Ju in many fields, and the relationship between the two parties was quite good. If the conditions given satisfy Youwei, they might be able to make the other party change their mind.

Pat Gelsinger has indeed provided extremely favorable conditions on behalf of Intel. If you are willing to mediate, they can help China quickly promote the development of this new chip technology, and are even willing to sign a contract with the local government to build a new chip technology. New technology chip production base worth less than 10 billion US dollars.

This indeed aroused the interest of many people. Although Youwei refused, local officials still negotiated with them for a long time, and some even flew to the capital, but in the end the negotiation failed. In the end, they got a very helpless answer. Their proposal was firmly rejected by Ning Zi, without any alternative plan.

He even brought a sentence: "Since you were able to formulate policies for him in the first place, you should have thought that one day, he would still like the unruly look of you people at the beginning, so don't ruin his impression of you."

When officials recounted the original words to the two presidents, it was said that Pat Gelsinger immediately smashed the phone after talking to Huang Wenhuang that day.

Yes, the alliance is dead in name only.

Not only that, NVIDIA, which initially formulated the most proactive and radical policies, is still being complained internally by many companies.

After all, this time in order to delay China's continued research and development of new chip configurations, everyone suffered a lot.

If NVIDIA hadn't been the first to call for this to happen, perhaps everyone's losses wouldn't have been so great. There may even be opportunities for collaboration.

The current loss is absolutely irreparable, so Lao Huang, the first spokesperson of the alliance, and Nvidia, which he represents, have naturally become the target of public criticism.

It's as if all the losses everyone is suffering now are the fault of Lao Huang and Nvidia.

If it were NVIDIA, which was once so high-spirited, it probably wouldn't care about these complaints at all. After all, they are the world's leading manufacturer of graphics technology and digital media processor industries, and nearly one-fifth of the companies in the alliance alone want to act based on his face.

But now Nvidia is facing an even worse market environment.

What was predicted before has happened. A large number of low-priced mining cards have begun to occupy a large area of ​​​​the shipment and market of new graphics cards. Nvidia has held conferences more than once to persuade major graphics card manufacturers to seal up materials, reduce production, and overcome difficulties.

But for manufacturers, it is also miserable at this time. Most of the semiconductor materials ordered previously have arrived. Most of these devices have a short shelf life and require harsh storage conditions. The warehousing costs are extremely high. If they are not produced, it means that countless materials are wasted, which is obviously not in everyone's interest.

This time the alliance was established, Huang won the position of speaker and put extreme pressure on China. Maybe no one artificially created a strategy for graphics computing chips to be scarce in the future to help these graphics card manufacturers sell more graphics cards in China and reduce pressure. , but who knew it would lead to such a result.

According to the market analysis results obtained by spending a lot of money, the impact of second-hand mining cards will last at least until the middle of 2021 or even the end of the year. Unless they join forces with AMD to launch graphics cards that are not only more competitive in terms of performance but also price and ensure supply, the demand for mid- to low-end graphics cards, which account for the largest share of the PC market, will mostly be filled by mining cards.

But judging from the current situation, Lao Huang feels that this analysis may be too optimistic.

Not only that the plan to exert extreme pressure to let China take over this batch of new low-end and mid-range graphics cards on a large scale at normal prices has completely gone bankrupt, former allies have also begun to express their dissatisfaction through various channels...

It even includes these graphics card manufacturers that depend on him for a living.

After all, big companies including Google, Intel, IBM, Qualcomm, etc. have begun to compromise, making the market environment they now face even more cruel.

Other semiconductor companies have made a bad start. Chips including hardware storage, flash memory, radio frequency, etc. have begun to cut prices. Even chip design software has begun to be discounted. Graphics cards that are in market difficulties seem to be even less competitive if they do not cut prices. But there is not much room for them to lower prices. If they lower prices any further, they will fall below the cost line.

At this time, Lao Huang really wanted to jump off the building. When internal and external troubles hit together, not only the graphics card manufacturers that relied on them for a living would be unable to hold on, Nvidia also felt that it would not be able to hold on. The mining disaster came too quickly, and they were killed before they had time to make a profit.

Is there any justice in this world?

…

Yes, Huang Wenhuang looked at the newly revised Q3 financial report and felt that the world was really unreasonable.

Total revenue was only 3.721 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37.8%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 235 million, a year-on-year decrease of 97.3%.

Huang Wenhuang knows very well that when this financial report is officially announced, it also indicates that Nvidia's stock price will fall further. Not to mention that this financial report has been technically modified. The real situation is very clear to Huang Wenhuang. The parent company's net profit in the third fiscal quarter is actually negative, and a lot of revenue is receivables, and some revenue is also used to subsidize some manufacturing A big factory.

Otherwise, those manufacturers will collapse, and Nvidia will have to reorganize its global production lines, which will be another laborious task.

The huge mining card market had a hard landing, disrupting all his plans and arrangements. Especially, the impact on the consumer graphics card market was almost devastating, and the decline was so severe that it was unbearable. Global markets are already saturated.

But what's even more terrifying is the immediate predicament.

As we all know, the most important investment logic in the capital market is expectations. For a company's future prospects, this requires a multi-dimensional examination.

As long as Nvidia remains the world's leading provider of graphics technology chips and maintains a near-monopoly position in the global market, it won't be a big deal even if the stock price drops temporarily.

But China's new chip structure has become a shadow hanging over all manufacturers in the World Semiconductor Alliance.

This cannot be concealed. The follow-up effects of the unprecedented discounts given to China by major companies in the alliance have begun to affect the global market. The well-informed bosses on Wall Street have probably received various reports on China's new structure chips. There are a lot of reports. Analysts are estimating and assessing the impact of the rise of China's semiconductor industry chain on the global semiconductor market.

The release of this financial report at this time will definitely make things worse.

Huang Wenhuang even had no doubt that those former friends and businessmen who were full of resentment against him would add insult to injury.

This past six months has really been like a dream...

It all started at the World Congress of Mathematicians. Ning Zi’s one-hour report only lasted forty minutes, which shocked the whole world.

Then, the virtual currency, which was booming and being sought after by thousands of people, was directly beaten to death with a stick. It was obviously the opponent who made the first move. The establishment of the World Semiconductor Alliance was more of a defensive nature at the time. Who would have thought that Ning Zi backhanded it and lost it again? A new generation of chip technology has emerged, making everyone panic.

Even if China seals up its technology now, they will still make a lot of money. Semiconductor companies around the world will probably be willing to provide China with cheap products and services in order to get a share of new technologies in the future, or to ensure market share at present.

Turning your hands over becomes clouds, turning over your hands becomes rain.

He had seen Ning Zi's methods.

Of course Huang Wenhuang would never believe that these achievements were made by Ning Zi alone.

Obviously, Ning Zi had a large scientific research team behind him from beginning to end. Ning Zi even admitted his relationship with the March Forum.

Thinking of this, Huang Wenhuang felt depressed again.

Those losers in Congress are always dictating their development. They have what they claim to be the most powerful intelligence agency in the world, but they still haven’t been able to find the founder behind the March Forum. If they can recruit this team to their side Come……

Forget it, Huang Wenhuang did have a lot of ideas at this time, but he couldn't solve the problem he was facing now.

After staring blankly at the financial report for five minutes, he switched the computer interface, opened the document, and began to think about it.

He wants to write a letter to NVIDIA's global executives, telling everyone that NVIDIA has reached its most dangerous moment. Judging from the current situation, it can only enter the real defensive stage. In particular, preventive layoffs are inevitable.

According to the financial report and internal suggestions, Nvidia now needs to lay off at least 30% of its employees to save cash flow as much as possible and use it in more important places, so that it can compete on the new track in the future.

However, Huang Wenhuang felt that he should be more radical and decided to lay off 50% of his employees.

This also means that when the wonderful Christmas holiday is over, half of Nvidia’s employees will not be able to return to their original jobs.

Of course, this can't be blamed on him, all the blame can only be placed on Ning Zi's head.

Now everyone can only place bets on new tracks, which also means huge investments in research and development.

Just when Huang Wenhuang made up his mind to start over and make Nvidia great again, a reminder suddenly appeared in his mailbox.

I clicked on the mailbox almost out of habit, and was surprised to find that it was an email from the Chip R\u0026D Center of Huaxia Yanbei University.

After a quick glance at the content of the email, the simple translation is: "Dear dear friends, with a technology sharing and open mind, our center sincerely invites powerful semiconductor companies to join in the process promotion and development of new structure three-dimensional chips and process standards. in the process of formulation.

If your company is also interested in cooperation, please go to the center's official website within three days to download the application form, fill it out as required, submit it, and wait for a response. Before filling out the application, please carefully read our company's requirements and suggestions for promoting technical cooperation. If you have no intention of cooperation, please ignore this email. Finally, I wish you a prosperous career. "

Really, Huang Wenhuang felt bad when he saw this email.

He couldn't figure out what Ning Zi wanted to cause trouble.

These people had just been to China not long ago. In order to cooperate, they put forward a lot of favorable conditions, but they were ruthlessly rejected.

Now that they are all back, they are offering to cooperate again?

What about playing monkey?

At this moment, Huang Wenhuang was ready to smash the computer.

After all, it would definitely be inappropriate for a regional general manager to talk about cooperation at this level. He might have to make another trip to China.

Uncooperative…

What a joke.

Let’s not talk about the three-dimensional structure chip configuration. Compared with the current most advanced technology, more transistors can be laid out per unit area, not to mention that the atomic diameter of its main structure, carbon, is much smaller than that of silicon atoms. This also means that it will be much smaller than it is now. Silicon-based chip technology has long-term development advantages and can advance to sub-nanometer technology levels more easily than silicon atoms.

At this time, Huang Wenhuang directly paused the internal letter to the executives, directly clicked on the link attached to the email, and entered the official website of Yanbei Huaxia Yanbei University Chip R\u0026D Center.

Sure enough, there is a 3D chip cooperation application link button on the catalog on the homepage of the official website.

I quickly clicked in and saw an application instructions.

After reading it carefully, Huang Wenhuang took another deep breath.

How should I put it? In fact, from the perspective of technical protection, there seems to be no problem. After all, they are just playing the rest of the game. But this time the situation is different. Companies that want to join the research and development of new structure chips, I will be squeezed by China for at least thirty years...

The most egregious thing is that this kind of exploitation does not start when the finished product is developed and sold on the market, but when the decision to join is made.

For example, to send scientists to participate in research and development, companies not only have to pay a one-time deposit of 13 billion US dollars, but all related R\u0026D laboratories must be built in China. What is even more exaggerated is that this deposit must first be deposited unconditionally for ten years, and then from The refund starts in the eleventh year. It is not a one-time refund, but a little refund every year, and the refund is completed in twenty years.

How much you can refund depends on whether you have violated various contract stipulations. If you violate it, you will have to deduct it until all the deductions are made.

The deposit is a deposit. If you want to participate in the formulation of new structure chip standards, you have to pay a deposit of US$3 billion.

Companies involved in R\u0026D and standard setting can be exempted from part of the patent licensing fees based on their contribution to the advancement of chip technology. At the same time, the patents they apply for on the basis of technology can also be used for free, but they still need to pay a large amount of money to the chip R\u0026D center every year. License fee for use of new structures.

The Huaxia Chip R\u0026D Center has the right to authorize companies it likes to use all patents on new structures. Of course, it will allocate some patent fees to everyone based on the contribution of each company. As for how to divide it, you have no right to dictate.

Among these conditions, the most unacceptable to Huang Wenhuang is that the design, simulation and process data collection of new chips can only be completed through the SB series EDA software. Even companies involved in the design cannot use other EDA software. , otherwise not only will all the deposits and margins be deducted, but the relevant semiconductor companies will also be kicked out directly.

crazy……

The Chinese people are really crazy this time...

Do you really think that antitrust laws don’t exist?

…

At the same time, Ning Zi had officially started his retreat career. In the underground basic physics laboratory of the New Technology Super Research Center of the National Sports University, he was in a daze looking at the large instruments purchased in March...

As expected of March, the family has been saving so fast!